Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Jobs since 2000Nonfarm payrolls give an overview of the overall employment outlook of the US economy; nonfarm payrolls do not include those employed in agriculture because of the seasonal nature of their work. This report obtains these numbers from 142,000 businesses and government agencies to track the new jobs added in non-farming sectors of the economy.

The unemployment rate is at 3.5%, which is the lowest it has been since 1969; it should be noted, however, that the unemployment rate is obtained from survey data, which could be influenced by sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 19% in September to 136,000 new jobs. For comparison, August’s nonfarm payrolls rose by 168,000 in July. Nonfarm payrolls are up 26% from September of last year, with 2.1 million jobs added in the last twelve months.

Many factors could impact this number. The cyclic nature of Census data collection could create thousands of temporary jobs, which would inflate the nonfarm payroll count. Though government revisions to employment numbers upon collection of additional data could later reveal that this number is higher than currently reported, the number will most likely decrease after 2020, when Census data collection ends. The payroll count has not surpassed the count in April 2019, and appears to decrease from June 2019 onward. Thus, employers foresee reduced productivity in the future, and an economic decline is predicted.


October 4, 2019