Consumer Spending and Personal Income

Consumer spending, measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), makes up approximately two-thirds of the economy and is a direct measure of purchasing activity. PCE is a reliable indication of inflation because it is calculated from data acquired directly from the GDP report and businesses. We see where consumers are spending their dollars, whether it be durable and nondurable goods, or …

Federal Reserve

Yesterday the Federal Reserve gave us an idea of what they were thinking for 2019.  The market does not like it and is showing it with its actions.  It is my opinion, that both the market and the Federal Reserve are wrong. Let me explain. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate; full employment and price stability.  As the chart …

What CPI Tells Us About Prices

The FED justified its aggressive monetary policy in 2010 as a way to “promote a stronger pace of economic recovery”. Have prices risen in the last 15 years because more dollars are chasing fewer goods? This chart shows a cumulative increase in price on a percentage basis indexed from 2000. For reference, a growth of 2% annually (the FED’s current …