We have a winner!

We have a winner! Our base case in this election was following the polling that was consistent over the past several months a Biden presidency, and a Democrat Senate.  While the Presidency will flip, it is looking more unlikely that the Senate will.  It is not a done deal, but the Georgia runoffs has a strong likelihood of keeping the …

The government definitely wanted to throw a big stick to keep the economy rolling.

It is hard not to start a market update with the following graph.  The economy of the United States is firmly in the hand of the people and their comfort with the state of the Coronavirus.  Ask yourself the following questions: 1.       When would you feel comfortable going to the grocery store? 2.       When would you feel comfortable enough to …

Making Lemonade out of Three COVID Lemons

In light of recent concerns over the economy, we are all worried about the performance of our investment portfolios. The latest pandemic has spiraled the market into a decline that is proving to be unpredictable. With this has come a lot of uncertainty and a few sour lemons. However, there are actions you can take that will help sweeten things …

Panic is not an investment strategy that works

Panic is not an investment strategy that works.  The nice part about the market is that we have an incredible amount of data on historical events and how the markets have responded.  Our current situation is no different.  Since February, the markets have dropped around 30%.  A bear market is when the markets are down 20% from their highs.  Normally …

What is the Coronavirus going to bring us?

The current outbreak of the Coronavirus has brought me back to a book I read last summer called Get Well Soon, History’s Worst Plagues and the Heroes who Fought Them. What was fascinating about the book was not necessarily the disease, but how humanity reacted to them.  The world has lived through the nastiness of leprosy, polio, syphilis, and even …

Federal Reserve

Yesterday the Federal Reserve gave us an idea of what they were thinking for 2019.  The market does not like it and is showing it with its actions.  It is my opinion, that both the market and the Federal Reserve are wrong. Let me explain. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate; full employment and price stability.  As the chart …

Greece in Focus

The equity markets seem particularly roiled today as a result of the failure of the ECB and Greece to come to a deal on their debt. While this is great news for traders, as it increases the volatility of the markets, it is really a yawner for longer term investors. Here are several reasons why: First, Greece is just not …