In a widely anticipated move, the FOMC announced on Wednesday that it was hiking interest rates by 50 basis points—the largest increase since 2000. This came as no surprise, with everyone from commentators, economists, money managers, and political pundits expecting the aforementioned half-point hike. This leaves the Fed Funds lower target (the overnight rate) at 0.75% and the discount rate …
New Home Sales
New single-family home sales represent the number of brand-new houses that were purchased or committed to being purchased over the course of a month. This data is collected from the Selling Office Commission and local building permit offices, under the assumption that new houses built are being built to sell. This indicator has a trickle-down effect, as demand rises for …
Fed Interest Rate Decision
As expected, the Federal Reserve announced today its first interest rate hike since 2018—25 basis points. This was not a surprise; market participants expected this. Even though some Fed officials briefly hinted at the possibility of a 0.50% hike at one point, they ended up forgoing that option, likely to avoid further destabilizing the markets after the bout of volatility …
Personal Income and Personal Expenditures
Consumer spending, measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), makes up approximately two-thirds of the economy and is a direct measure of purchasing activity. PCE is a reliable indication of inflation because it is calculated from data acquired directly from the GDP report and businesses. It shows us where consumers are spending their dollars, whether it be durable and non-durable goods, …
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending, measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), makes up approximately two-thirds of the economy and is a direct measure of purchasing activity. PCE is a reliable indication of inflation because it is calculated from data acquired directly from the GDP report and businesses. It shows us where consumers are spending their dollars, whether it be durable and non-durable goods, …
Federal Open Market Committee
Last Wednesday, the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), held in late July, were released. After a year of some of most dovish monetary policies in the Federal Reserve’s history, members of the FOMC finally indicated they were on track to begin scaling back their gargantuan asset-purchase program later this year. The program, which was established at …
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tells us of any inflationary pressures in the economy. The CPI measures the average price levels of a basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The index starts with a base time period (1982-1984, currently) and shows the overall increase since that time. As with many economic indicators, it can be volatile from month …
New and Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Sales provide the number of purchases made for homes, condominiums, and co-ops that have already been built, while New Home Sales represent the number of brand-new houses that were purchased or committed to being purchased over the course of a month. Both new and existing home sales give an indication of the demand for housing. When people purchase a …
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending, measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), makes up approximately two-thirds of the economy and is a direct measure of purchasing activity. PCE is a reliable indication of inflation because it is calculated from data acquired directly from the GDP report and businesses. We see where consumers are spending their dollars, whether it be durable and non durable goods, …
Interest Payments
Last March, as the Coronavirus crisis was first beginning to unfold, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to record-low levels. Simultaneously, the Federal Government increased its already high spending through massive stimulus packages intended to reduce the pandemic’s impact on the economy—adding trillions to the national debt. Over the past year, the national debt soared from $23.2 trillion to $27.7 …
Import and Export Price Indexes
The import and export price indexes measure changes in the prices of goods and services coming in and out of the United States. The data is used to deflate government trade statistics, predict future inflation and price changes, set fiscal and monetary policy, measure exchange rates, negotiate trade contracts, and identify specific industry and global trends. The indexes are updated …
Consumer Sentiment
The US Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), as provided by the University of Michigan, tracks consumer sentiment in the US, based on surveys on random samples of US households. The index aids in measuring consumer sentiments in personal finances, business conditions, among other topics. Historically, the index displays pessimism in consumers’ confidence during recessionary periods, and increased consumer confidence in …
Federal Funds Rate
The Effective Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which banks trade federal funds with each other. This rate is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee. The Federal Funds Rate influences the interest rates at which banks and credit card companies charge customers. As of March 1st, Federal Funds were 1.6%, a decrease from last year’s rate of …
Does this mean that our economy goes into recession?
I have included, at the end of this note, a few paragraphs of Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Officer of Charles Schwab. Her advice is sound in times like these. From our side, the selloffs are overdone. This does not mean, however, that they will bounce back right away. In previous Market Updates, we have mentioned that there will be …
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls give an overview of the overall employment outlook of the US economy; nonfarm payrolls do not include those employed in agriculture because of the seasonal nature of their work. This report obtains these numbers from 142,000 businesses and government agencies to track the new jobs added in non-farming sectors of the economy. In October, the unemployment rate is …
Global Interest Rates
While the market seems to be on a rocket ride this year, we may want to move back a little bit and take a look at the market over the past two years. Frequently we look at and are told about the market’s Year-to-Date return. In 2019, it looks fantastic. Who can complain about a 20% plus return in the …
Contrary to Popular Belief: The United States has Really High Interest Rates
Everyone has heard how incredibly low the United States’ interest rates are. The pressing question now is when will the Fed commence ‘Lift Off’? At what increments will rates rise once they begin the program? We have been hearing for a long time that rates have nowhere to go but up. Maybe that is not the case. Comparing America’s current …